Maritime visibility has “deteriorated sharply” in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman in the last 48 hours, creating operational risk and potentially increasing insurance premiums, a maritime intelligence agency has said.
As many as 470 vessels in the region appeared to have been affected by GPS jamming as of May 5, disrupting their ability to track vessel movements and navigate safely, according to a report published today by Windward.
In the Fujairah anchorage area, vessels may also be deliberately shutting down automatic identification system (AIS) transmissions in response to growing security threats, the report said. Of over 100 vessels in the region, only around 10 were transmitting visible AIS signals as of today.
“The result is a fragmented operating environment where commercial shipping must navigate physical attacks, degraded electronic visibility, mounting compliance exposure and increasingly militarised transit conditions simultaneously,” Windward said.
The conditions are “likely to increase war-risk insurance premiums and suppress near-term lifting activity”, it said.
The situation has escalated significantly since attacks on the VTTI oil terminal in the UAE’s Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on May 4.
The report said satellite imagery showed the fire was still burning at the terminal on May 5 suggesting “sustained infrastructure damage rather than a short-duration strike event”.
Following the attacks, oil and fuel exports from Fujairah fell from a 30-day average of 3.5-4 million barrels per day to just 500,000 barrels on May 5, Windward found. The UAE’s crude exports are currently less than half of their 10-year seasonal averages.
Coupled with attacks on two vessels and the detention of a third by Iranian forces, the company warned of “coordinated attacks on UAE-linked energy infrastructure”.
With a growing number of tankers either unable or unwilling to transmit location information, Windward found dark activity in the Strait of Hormuz has reached its highest level since the start of the conflict in February.
“Thousands of vessels across the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman are now operating with degraded or absent positional visibility,” it said.
Despite the elevated safety risks, the report said satellite imagery shows Iran-linked vessels are continuing to load oil at Kharg Island.
It gave the example of sanctioned tanker MT Virgo, which has not transmitted a location signal since April 23 but appears to be preparing to break through the US’ naval blockade.
Windward said the increasingly difficult operating environment suggests “commercial shipping conditions around Hormuz are becoming structurally less stable rather than temporarily disrupted”.
